This was a professional paper on the expert management of uncertainty in general practice settings.

Doust J, MacIsaac MB, Tam CWM, Knight A, King D. General practitioners do not need to be certain; they need to be safe. Australian Journal of General Practice 2026; 55(6): 334-339 DOI: 10.31128/AJGP-10-25-7854

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Abstract

Introduction

General practitioners (GPs) manage a high level of uncertainty when making decisions. Rural GPs experience added uncertainty due to the limited access to testing and the distance from secondary and tertiary care and other forms of assistance.

Objective

We review how uncertainty affects general practice and describe how models of decision making can be applied in this setting. We provide examples of techniques that experienced GPs use to manage uncertainty.

Discussion

The naturalistic decision-making model effectively describes general practice decision making, showing how expertise is gained through extensive experience with previous cases and high-validity feedback. GPs do not require a high degree of certainty to make decisions safely and effectively. Other clinicians and the broader public often undervalue this aspect of general practice. GPs’ expert tolerance of uncertainty is actually a strength, allowing patients to be managed safely without overwhelming the healthcare system.