sf = 2600 / 1800
alphaPI = 0.08

r0 <- ggplot(data=au_covid, aes(x=as.Date(date), y=new)) + 
	xlab("") + 
	ylab("Daily Local COVID-19 cases (NSW)") +
	scale_x_date(date_breaks = "1 weeks", date_labels = "%b %d") +
	geom_vline(xintercept=todaydate, color = "grey") +

	geom_vline(xintercept=as.Date("2021-6-25"), color = "red", size=0.5) +
	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-6-25"), y=1400*sf, label="A (25/6) ", hjust=1) +
	geom_vline(xintercept=as.Date("2021-7-9"), color = "red", size=0.5) +
	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-7-9"), y=1400*sf, label="B (9/7) ", hjust=1) +
	geom_vline(xintercept=as.Date("2021-8-16"), color = "red", size=0.5) +
	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-8-16"), y=1400*sf, label="C (16/8) ", hjust=1) +
	geom_vline(xintercept=as.Date("2021-8-23"), color = "red", size=0.5) +
	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-8-23"), y=1400*sf, label="D (23/8) ", hjust=1) +

	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-6-20"), y=900*sf, label="A: Initial lockdown", hjust=0) +
	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-6-20"), y=825*sf, label="B: Intensifies in hot LGAs", hjust=0) +
	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-6-20"), y=750*sf, label="C: NSW-wide lockdown", hjust=0) +
	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-6-20"), y=675*sf, label="D: Curfews & permits in hot LGAs", hjust=0) +

	annotate("label", x=as.Date("2021-6-20"), y=1800*sf, label="Projection of new daily cases of COVID-19 (Today)", size=5.5, hjust=0) +
	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-6-20"), y=1700*sf, label= paste(au_covid$date[today], "@", time, "GMT+10"), hjust=0) +
	annotate("text", x=as.Date("2021-6-20"), y=1625*sf, label="Assumption: fitted to Richards' growth curve", hjust=0) +

	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.05, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.05), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.15, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.15), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.25, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.25), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.35, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.35), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.45, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.45), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.55, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.55), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
    	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.65, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.65), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.75, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.75), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.85, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.85), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=alphaPI) +
	geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=model.au.lwr.deriv.99, ymax=model.au.upr.deriv.99), fill="dark green", colour=NA, alpha=0.03) +
    
	geom_point(colour="white", size = 3.2) + 
	geom_point(colour="grey20", size = 2.8) +     
	geom_line(aes(y=model.au.fit.deriv), colour="grey20", alpha=0.3, size = 1, linetype=2) + 
    	geom_line(aes(y=model.au.upr.deriv), colour="grey20", alpha=0.3, linetype=2) + 
    	geom_line(aes(y=model.au.lwr.deriv), colour="grey20", alpha=0.3, linetype=2) + 

	annotate("label", x=(todaydate), y=85*sf, label=au_covid$date[today], size=3) +
	coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, 1800*sf), xlim = c(as.Date("2021-6-17"),todaydate+10)) 

r0